Monday, June 8
15.00–16.00
Room: Europa

Chaired by
Lea Kaftan
Senior Researcher
GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences

Presenter

Nataly Viviana Vargas Gamboa
Senior Fellow, Centre for International Law and Justice, Stockholm University

Title
Decoding EMBs: Confronting their de facto powers with autonomy indexes

Electoral Management Bodies, as a Latin American innovation, were introduced to play a fundamental role in electoral administration as key actors in vertical accountability. In many countries they were granted broad powers of control and sanction over the other branches of government, with the aim of playing a significant role in electoral oversight, which corresponds to the exercise of horizontal accountability. However, over time, due their extreme importance in maintaining the rules of democracy, EMBs have been the target of a silent attack that has managed to slip through gaps in democratic institutions and pack them to change electoral rules to favor incumbents, as a subtle and gradual strategy. The main objective of this paper is to understand this process of democratic deterioration by analyzing the extent to which the EMBs have been able to protect their independence, focusing on their jurisdictional, statutory and legislative initiative powers, and confronting them with existing autonomy indexes of EMB. The analysis goes beyond a formalistic approach that merely describes constitutional and electoral laws, and examines the scope of the restrictions on the separation of powers and the exercise of checks and balances, seeking to strengthen the indexes with a more nuanced understanding of them.

Presenter

Johan Hellström
Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor
Umeå University

Co-Authors
Jonas Lindahl, Umeå University
Joakim Wising, Umeå University
Hanna Bäck, Lund University
Royce Carroll, University of Essex

Title
Measuring Party Positions and Intra-Party Cohesion from Parliamentary Debates

Can parliamentary debates be used to measure party policy positions, and to what extent do legislators from the same party or governing coalition articulate coherent positions over time? This paper develops a scalable approach to estimating both discursive party positions and intra‑party cohesion using parliamentary speeches. Methodologically, we draw on large language models to interpret speeches for meaning rather than treating text as a mere count of words. Issue‑specific summaries of parliamentary speech are generated and placed on substantively defined policy scales, producing comparable position estimates across actors and time.

In our empirical analysis, we examine speeches delivered by Swedish Members of Parliament from 2010 to 2025. To illustrate our methodological approach, we mainly focus on two policy domains—the EU and immigration—where notable shifts and developments are anticipated over time.

Our results indicate that party-level position estimates derived from parliamentary speech closely correspond to expert placements from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, providing evidence of convergent validity while offering substantially greater temporal coverage and scalability.

Presenter

Valeriya Mechkova
Associate Senior Lecturer
University of Gothenburg

Title
Connecting the Dots: Regime Change and Political Parties’ Rhetoric regarding Women’s Working Rights

This paper examines political parties' rhetoric on women's labor rights during periods of autocratization and democratization. While existing research highlights the importance of women's rights in shaping regimes, the findings around the role of women's labor rights in explaining autocratization and democratization remain context-dependent and inconsistent. To address this gap, we systematically analyze the timing of shifts in political parties' discourse regarding women's rights in relation to regime change. Specifically, we investigate the various stages of regime transformation—before and at the onset of regime change, as well as throughout and after the transition period—to understand how regimes leverage women's rights during these critical junctures. We use global data on democracy levels, aggregate data spanning 3,467 parties represented in 178 parliaments between 1970 and 2019 from the V-Party dataset, and apply a sequatial approach by levereging logistic and multinomial functions. Our analysis reveals distinct patterns. In autocratizing regimes, attacks on women's labor rights tend to occur relatively late in the process, following earlier increases in violence and repression. Conversely, in democratizing contexts, a commitment to women's labor rights often emerges early, signaling a broader commitment to pluralism at the onset of regime change. Our paper contributes with a detailed account of how rhetoric on women's labor rights is strategically employed as part of the broader repertoire of legitimation and control in unfolding autocratization, and conversely, as a key building block of democratization.

Demscore Conference 2026